Frightening Freddie and Fannie Facts?

Freddie Mac reported a large loss yesterday, but it was a loss that was smaller than expected.  Good news, right?  Well, maybe not.  Apparently, the losses were smaller than expected "because of accounting tactics that minimized the impact of bad loans."

 

But here is the more frightening quote from the article:

"Both these companies are clearly going to be insolvent by the end of the year, but everyone knows that Congress will do anything to keep them afloat, because if Fannie and Freddie go under, the entire global financial system will melt down," said Christopher Whalen, co-founder of the independent research firm Institutional Risk Analytics. "These companies' earnings don't matter. Their accounting hardly matters. People buy the stock because they believe the federal government will bail them both out if things get really bad."

(emphasis added).

 

Woah.  Insolvent by the end of the year?  Massive government bailout inevitable or a global financial collapse?  Of course, that could just be pessimism run amok, but given the size of both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and the importance of those two giants to the housing market and the global economy, thinking of their collapse is a sobering thought.

 

For more on this, go visit Sox First, which is a good blog following management compliance issues and Sarbanes Oxley developments.  Sox First has some additional links and articles about this issue.

1929 Redux?

My partner, Scott DeWolf, sent me this link the other day and I've been traveling and have not had time to stick it up on the blog.  It is an interesting news story (now a week old) picking up the comments of Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor and 2001 Nobel Laureate.  In the article, Stiglitz predicts that it is at least possible that the current economic downturn could be the worst the country has seen since the Great Depression.  As the article explains:

 

"[Stiglitz] explained that main cause of the current situation is historically unique -- and thus is befuddling those charged with creating solutions.

Other downturns were primarily caused by excesses in inventories or inflation; but this slowdown is due to the condition of "badly impaired" banks and financial entities, which are unwilling and/or unable to lend capital -- stymieing the very borrowers who usually drive the country back to vitality, Stiglitz said. And the Federal Reserve may have used up its ammunition -- and the faith investors and planners have put in it."

 

It is probably worth noting that the Fed cut interest rates yet again on April 30th.  (Making this blog entry somewhat timely).  That brings the federal funds rate to 2%.  Interestingly, the Federal Reserve also hinted that no further rate cuts would be forthcoming.  At least for now.  Perhaps a signal that the Fed has truly "used up its ammunition" or is running perilously close to being empty.